Traverse forecast
Live wind and same-day outlook for Lac du Bourget.
Traverse outlook
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chance of 30 minutes of westerly wind at 10+ knots still ahead before 20:00
–onset within 3 hours
–physical onset evidence
–latest wind observation
Wind now · PiouPiou 2176
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Current model · remaining afternoon wind
Useful wind still ahead
At each update, predict at least 30 minutes of westerly wind at 10+ knots between noon (or now, if later) and 20:00. Continuing wind and later spells both count.
0.256mean checkpoint average precision
0.205previous model on the same target
+0.030 to +0.07395% interval for the gain
Historical 2020–2025 development folds, at 08:00, 10:00, 12:00, 14:00, 16:00 and 18:00. Gains are strongest late in the afternoon; 08:00 ranking is slightly worse. No new 2026 evaluation, alert threshold or onset-time forecast. Experiment details ↗
Previous onset model · 2026 retrospective audit
Previous model results
TP–detected eventsat least 3 hours ahead
FN–missed eventsno alert at least 3 hours ahead
FP–false-alert daysamong non-event days
TN–correctly quiet daysamong non-event days
–average precision · ≥3 h
–ROC AUC · ≥3 h
–balanced accuracy
–median warning
Event-day metrics use the frozen alert threshold selected before this scoring pass. This is a retrospective audit on partial 2026 data, not an untouched prospective evaluation or a live accuracy estimate.
2026 archive
Browse previous days
Traverse probabilityaverage windgust
–maximum probability
–peak gust
–prediction checkpoints